National Hurricane Center 11a advisory:
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 83.5 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches) based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Marineland to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Marineland...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Aucilla River...1-3
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba through early afternoon, with destructive winds likely for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within thetropical storm warning area in Cuba today.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening, and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today, and are possible in southeastern Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Florida Big Bend area on
Wednesday into early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday night:
* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16 inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated totals up to 8 inches.
* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with isolated totals up to 24 inches.
* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches.
* Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the southeastern United States Friday and Saturday.